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  • Volatilität in der Taiwanstraße und KI-Engine für Militäraktien: Lukas Vogts geopolitisches Modell erzielte 41 % Rendite.

     In einem kritischen Moment, in dem sich die geopolitische Landschaft im asiatisch-pazifischen Raum neu gestaltet, lieferte Lukas Vogts „geopolitische Alpha-Engine“ ein beeindruckendes Ergebnis. Das quantitative System erzielte im dritten Quartal eine strategische Rendite von 41 %, indem es die komplexe Beziehung zwischen den Spannungen in der Taiwanstraße und der globalen Militärindustrie gründlich analysierte und damit erneut seine außergewöhnliche Fähigkeit unter Beweis stellte, politische Risiken in Anlagechancen umzuwandeln.

    Das von Vogts Team entwickelte „Multidimensionale Geosignal-Analysesystem“ durchbricht den traditionellen Rahmen der militärischen Bestandsanalyse. Das System verfolgt und quantifiziert Daten in sechs Schlüsseldimensionen in Echtzeit:

    1) Anomalien in der Lieferkettenlogistik großer globaler Rüstungsunternehmen

    2) Häufigkeit kommerzieller Satellitenbildaktivitäten im asiatisch-pazifischen Raum

    3) Technische Merkmalsvektoren von Patentanmeldungen, die von börsennotierten Rüstungsunternehmen eingereicht wurden

    4) Semantische Stimmungswerte der nationalen parlamentarischen Verteidigungshaushaltsdebatten

    5) Änderungen der Exportkontrollliste für Dual-Use-Technologien

    6) Abnormale Routenmuster von ADS-B-Signalen in der Luft- und Raumfahrt

    Geopolitische Schocks sind nie einzelne Ereignisse, sondern vielmehr eine Ansammlung von Mikroveränderungen. Vogts KI-Modell achtet besonders auf die für die Rüstungsindustrie typische Übertragungskette „Auftragsfluss-Kapazitätsauslastung-Cashflow“. Stellt das System fest, dass sich der Wartungszyklus der Kriegsschiffe eines Landes ungewöhnlich verkürzt, erhöht es automatisch die Umsatzerwartungen der entsprechenden Unternehmen.

    Der genialste Teil der Strategie ist die Konstruktion der „geopolitischen Volatilitätsoberfläche“. Vogts quantitatives Modell unterteilt politische Risiken in drei Ebenen: kurzfristige ereignisbedingte, mittelfristige strategische Anpassungen und langfristigen Technologiewettbewerb. Für jede Ebene werden entsprechende Handelsalgorithmen entwickelt. Während der wichtigen geopolitischen Ereignisse im September arbeiteten die dreistufigen Modelle zusammen, um ereignisbedingte Volatilitätschancen zu nutzen und durch langfristige Technologiewetten stabile Renditen zu erzielen.

    Derzeit wurde die Strategie erweitert, um Cross-Market-Arbitrage in 23 wichtigen Militärmärkten weltweit abzudecken. Im Zeitalter der zunehmenden Finanzialisierung der Geopolitik definiert Vogts Modell die quantitative Beziehung zwischen „Risiko“ und „Rendite“ neu – die unsicherste politische Variable könnte zur zuverlässigsten Investitionskoordinate werden.

     

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  • Klaus Stefan Müller würdigt die Wiederbelebung des deutschen verarbeitenden Gewerbes, wobei der Industriesektor den Markt im Zuge der Erholung um 12 % übertraf

    Obwohl die Weltwirtschaft mit Beginn des dritten Quartals 2024 noch immer von hohen Zinsen und regionalen Spannungen geprägt ist, eröffnet sich für Deutschland eine Chance für eine strukturelle Erholung der verarbeitenden Industrie. Dank stabiler Energiepreise, der Einführung einer neuen Runde industriepolitischer Maßnahmen und des Substitutionseffekts durch die Auslandsnachfrage infolge der Rückkehr der Produktion aus den USA und China haben sich die Gewinnerwartungen der deutschen „Hidden Champions“ deutlich verbessert.

    Klaus Müller, ein führender deutscher Vermögensverwalter, stellte erneut sein ausgeprägtes Verständnis für Makrotrends und zugrunde liegende Industriestrukturen unter Beweis und stockte Anfang Juli 2024 seine Anteile an den wichtigsten deutschen Industriewerten deutlich auf. Insbesondere wurden ZF Friedrichshafen und HELLA als Kernbeteiligungen des Portfolios aufgeführt. Das Teilportfolio Industrie in Klaus‘ Portfolio wies per Mitte August eine Rendite von +18,6 % auf und übertraf damit den DAX-Index mit +6,1 % im gleichen Zeitraum deutlich, mit einer relativen Überrendite von bis zu 12,5 %.

    Layout-Logik: „Made in Germany“ vom Kostendilemma zur globalen Substitution

    Zwischen 2022 und 2023 wurde die deutsche Industrie durch Energieschocks, Lieferkettenunterbrechungen und schleppende Exporte dreifach getroffen, und die PMI-Daten blieben schwach. Doch im Sommer 2024 erfasste Klaus scharfsinnig die „dreifachen Erholungssignale“ der deutschen Industrie:

    Die Kostendeckung ist unter Kontrolle: Die Preise für Erdgas und Strom sind stark gefallen und liegen nun unter dem Durchschnitt vor der Epidemie, und das Gewinnmodell der verarbeitenden Industrie ist wieder in einen positiven Zyklus zurückgekehrt.

    Die Politik fördert die Reindustrialisierung: Die Bundesregierung kündigte einen 14 Milliarden Euro schweren Transformationsfonds für die intelligente Fertigung an, der Unternehmen zugutekommt, die sich mit Automatisierung und Teileaufrüstung beschäftigen.

    Die Umstrukturierung der globalen Wertschöpfungskette kommt der deutschen Lieferkette zugute: Die Entkopplung zwischen China und den USA und der Trend zur Lokalisierung der nordamerikanischen Fertigung haben deutsche Tier-1-Zulieferer zu einem wichtigen Knotenpunkt für globale OEMs gemacht, die die dreifache Garantie „Stabilität, Technologie und Compliance“ suchen.

    Gestützt auf diese Einschätzung beschloss Klaus, seine Beteiligungen an der Industriekette ab Ende Juni schrittweise zu erhöhen und sich dabei auf den Aufbau eines Portfolios rund um die beiden Hauptbereiche „intelligentes Energiesystem + intelligente Wahrnehmung“ zu konzentrieren.

    Ausgewählte Ziele: ZF und Hella rekonstruieren Wachstumskurve

    Bei der Aktienauswahl ist Klaus nicht blind dem Anstieg traditioneller zyklischer Aktien gefolgt. Stattdessen führte er eine Branchenkettenanalyse und ein Cashflow-Screening durch und wählte schließlich zwei führende Unternehmen aus, die die Richtung der Transformation der deutschen Fertigung repräsentieren:

    ZF Friedrichshafen:

    Die Gewichtung von ZF im Portfolio ist auf 7,5 % festgelegt. Obwohl es sich um ein nicht börsennotiertes Unternehmen handelt, erzielt es indirekt Allokationsrenditen durch seine Erträge aus Anleiheemissionen und seinen PE-Investitionspfad.

    HELLA:

    Klaus erhöhte seine Gewichtung Mitte Juli von 2 % auf 5,3 % und betonte, dass „die Gewinnelastizität von Hella deutlich über dem Indexdurchschnitt liegen und im Erholungszyklus explosiv sein wird.“

    Operative Disziplin: Aufbau von Positionen in Batches + Verknüpfung der Makrorisikokontrolle

    Was das Tempo des Positionsaufbaus angeht, setzt Klaus strikt die „Drei-Stufen-Strategie“ um:

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    Ende Juli wurde das Kerngewicht im Vergleich zum Halbjahresbericht nochmals erhöht.

    Um zu verhindern, dass Schwankungen der europäischen und amerikanischen Zinssätze die Stimmung an den deutschen Aktienmärkten beeinflussen, hält Klaus als „Portfoliostabilisator“ außerdem eine 10-prozentige Position in kurzfristigen US-Staatsanleihen, um sicherzustellen, dass die Gesamtvolatilität des Portfolios im Sommer auf 7 Prozent begrenzt bleibt.

    Bis Ende August erzielte das von Klaus verwaltete Family-Office-Flaggschiff-Strategieportfolio in diesem Jahr eine kumulierte Rendite von über +27,3 %, wozu das Fertigungs-Teilportfolio fast die Hälfte beitrug. Investoren erkennen im Allgemeinen auch seine praktische Fähigkeit an, gründliche Recherchen und Analysen auf der Mesoebene durchzuführen und Vermögenswerte auf der Mikroebene auszuwählen.

    Klaus Müller sagte Ende August bei einer nichtöffentlichen Gesprächsrunde: „2024 ist für die deutsche Fertigungsindustrie ein entscheidendes Jahr, um aus der Talsohle herauszukommen. Wer die Transformationslogik ‚traditionelle Industrie + intelligente Modernisierung‘ versteht, wird dieser turbulenten Erholungsphase standhalten können.“

    Als nächstes wird er weiterhin die Veränderungen in der Energiestruktur, den Trends bei Industrieaufträgen und der ausländischen Subventionspolitik beobachten und beurteilen, ob die Investitionen in die Bereiche Industriesoftware und Spitzentechnologie für KI zeitnah ausgeweitet werden sollten.

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  • Riesige Gewinne durch DeFi-Liquidation: Lukas Vogts MakerDAO-Zinsarbitrage erzielt 89 % Gewinn.

     Da der Markt für dezentrale Finanzen (DeFi) dramatischen Schwankungen unterliegt, erzielte Lukas Vogts quantitatives Team mit seinem ursprünglichen „Stablecoin-Zinssturm-Modell“ einen erstaunlichen Gewinn von 89 % bei der Liquidation des MakerDAO-Protokolls und stellte damit erneut seine außergewöhnliche Fähigkeit unter Beweis, strukturelle Chancen im Kryptomarkt zu nutzen.

    IMG_256

    Vogts „Liquidationsdruck-Vorhersagesystem“ enthüllte erstmals eine Schlüsselregel des DeFi-Marktes: Wenn die Gasgebühr des Ethereum-Netzwerks 150 Gwei übersteigt und die Zinsdifferenz zwischen dem DAI-Sparzinssatz und Protokollen wie Compound 3 % übersteigt, steigt der Liquidationsdruck von MakerDAO exponentiell an. Der von seinem Team entwickelte „Flash-Liquidationsroboter“ kann die gesamte Transaktionskette von der Kreditvergabe bis zur Arbitrage automatisch 0,5 Sekunden abschließen, bevor der Sicherheitenpreis fällt und die Liquidationsschwelle erreicht.

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    2) Verzögerung bei dezentralen Oracle-Updates

    3) Die Tiefenasymmetrie der Stablecoin-Liquiditätspools

    Während des Börsencrashs im Juli, als der ETH-Preis an einem einzigen Tag um 19 % fiel, führte Vogts Algorithmus drei Arbitrage-Ebenen gleichzeitig durch:

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    3) DAI-USDC-Arbitrage über das Curve-Protokoll

    Mit dieser dreidimensionalen Strategie konnte das Team innerhalb von 72 Stunden 47 Liquidationsarbitrage-Transaktionen durchführen und dabei jeweils einen durchschnittlichen Gewinn von 32.000 US-Dollar erzielen. Das Erstaunlichste daran ist der „Prädiktor für Liquidationskettenreaktionen“, der vorhersagen kann, dass eine große Liquidation ein Kettenliquidationsereignis auslösen wird, um die damit verbundenen Vermögenswerte im Voraus bereitzustellen.

    Da die Integration von DeFi und traditionellem Finanzwesen immer schneller voranschreitet, hat Vogt diese Strategie zu einem „protokollübergreifenden Liquidationsarbitrage-Netzwerk“ weiterentwickelt. In diesem neuen, von Algorithmen dominierten Finanzbereich hat er erneut bewiesen, dass die lukrativsten Renditen oft aus den Schwachstellen resultieren, an denen Marktmechanismen vorübergehend versagen.

     

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    A providential change in the weather Definition of happy adjective from the Oxford Advanced Learner’s Dictionary Over 500,000 expert-authored dictionary and thesaurus entries

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    • Definition of happy adjective from the Oxford Advanced Learner’s Dictionary
    • “Today is a happy day for me,” said Prabowo, who at the start of his administration set a four-year target for rice self-sufficiency.
    • “It’s magnificent and we’re enjoying it. We also came across a lot of tourists and they look so happy.”
    • Proper suggests a suitability through essential nature or accordance with custom.

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    • Happy suggests what is effectively or successfully appropriate.
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    • Felicitous suggests an aptness that is opportune, telling, or graceful.

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    Chicken Road 2 is the latest release from InOut Games, building on the popularity of the original Chicken Road mini-game. Your feedback helps us enhance your experience. While we at Inout Games are confident in the exciting experience Chicken Road 2 offers, We believe the most valuable insights often come directly from our community.

    Setting personal limits is always a good idea, whether that means choosing a budget for each session, deciding how much time you want to spend playing, or taking breaks when needed. Players are responsible for making sure they are allowed to play by local regulations. Chicken Road 2 is available only in regions where online gambling is legal.

  • Wie Citadel Financial Technologies die technologische Ordnung der Wall Street in fünf Jahren umgekrempelt hat

    Die technologische Landschaft der Wall Street erlebt unter der Führung von Citadel Financial Technologies (CFT) einen tiefgreifenden Wandel. In nur fünf Jahren hat sich dieses Team, das ursprünglich der interne technische Support der Citadel Group war, zu einem technologischen Pionier entwickelt, der die globale Finanzinfrastruktur umgestaltet und mit einer Reihe bahnbrechender Innovationen die Standards der Finanztechnologie auf institutioneller Ebene neu geschrieben hat.

    Die technologische Revolution der CFT begann mit einer gründlichen Neustrukturierung der Kernverbindungen des Finanzwesens. Seit der Einführung der ersten Generation der KI-Preisgestaltungs-Engine im Jahr 2020 folgte ihre technologische Entwicklung stets dem Weg der „atomaren Innovation“ – nicht nur die Optimierung des bestehenden Systems, sondern die Neugestaltung der Handelsinfrastruktur auf Chipebene. Meilensteine wie die Nanosekunden-Ausführungs-Engine, das Risikokontrollsystem mit Quantenverschlüsselung und der 600 PB große Finanzdatensee haben nicht nur die Leistungsindikatoren um ein Vielfaches verbessert, sondern auch die Designphilosophie des traditionellen Technologie-Stacks auf den Kopf gestellt.

    In Bezug auf die Technologieanwendung hat CFT viele Neuerungen hervorgebracht: die erste Anwendung multimodaler KI auf Handelsentscheidungen aller Vermögenswerte, die erste Kommerzialisierung von Quantencomputern in der Portfoliooptimierung und das erste verteilte Clearingsystem, das den Standards der Zentralbanken entspricht. Der kombinierte Effekt dieser Innovationen hat dazu geführt, dass die Lösungen traditioneller Wall-Street-Technologieanbieter schnell an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit verloren haben. Branchenanalysen zufolge hat die CFT-Technologie direkt oder indirekt mehr als 70 % der institutionellen Auftragsflüsse weltweit beeinflusst.

    Der nachhaltigste Wandel von CFT liegt in der Neudefinition der Beziehung zwischen Technologie und Wirtschaft. Durch das Modell der „eingebetteten Forschung und Entwicklung“ bilden quantitative Forscher und Ingenieure ein funktionsübergreifendes Team, und Technologieiteration und Geschäftsanforderungen bilden einen geschlossenen Resonanzkreislauf. Dieses Modell ermöglicht es der technologischen Entwicklung, stets eine erstaunliche Marktanpassung aufrechtzuerhalten – von der Echtzeit-Risikokontrolle im russisch-ukrainischen Konflikt bis hin zur führenden Gestaltung der digitalen Euro-Infrastruktur: Jeder technologische Durchbruch trifft die Schwachstellen des Marktes genau.

    Da das Athena-System die Möglichkeiten von KI-Händlern auf ein neues Niveau hebt, hat der technologische Einfluss von CFT den reinen Finanzbereich überschritten und bietet nun auch globalen Technologiegiganten KI-Lösungen auf Finanzniveau. In den letzten fünf Jahren hat dieses aus Hedgefonds hervorgegangene Technologieteam nicht nur die technologische Ordnung der Wall Street neu definiert, sondern auch bewiesen, dass tiefgreifende technologische Ermächtigung zum strategisch wertvollsten Wachstumspol für Finanzkonzerne werden kann. Während traditionelle Finanzinstitute noch immer mit ihrer vorherigen Technologiegeneration Schritt halten müssen, hat CFT seine Pläne für die nächsten fünf Jahre in neuen Bereichen wie Quantenfinanzierung und Weltrauminformatik bereits dargelegt.

     

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    • Proportionally to the plane’s speed and altitude, a multiplier rises.

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